Trade Policy in Australia and the Development of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling

This paper discusses the early establishment in Australia of CGE modeling as a major policy tool. As background, it provides a short history of CGE modeling and describes the impetus to the field from: (a) the failure of less theoretically formal approaches; and (b) the recognition that this type of modeling can handle policy-relevant detail. The paper then argues that the CGE approach flourished in Australia because Australia had the right issue, the right institutions and the right model. The final section looks to the future of CGE modeling and the challenge of demonstrating that it really works.