Transactions and Risk of Propagation of COVID-19 : A Model Based on the Velocity of Money in Gabon

This paper proposes to model the risk of propagation of COVID-19 through the fiat money channel, based on the velocity of money in Gabon. The simulation is made by assuming that one monetary unit is initially carrying the virus and that the “barrier” hygiene measures are not respected. Based on the quantitative theory of money, we show that the propagation of the virus takes place according to a geometric progression. In this context, apart from the person initially infected, 120 people could be infected through the fiat money channel after 4 days and 1092 people after 6 days. More than 100% of the Gabonese population would be likely to be infected after 13 days. Thus, hygiene “barrier” measures must be taken and respected from the beginning of the process to stop the propagation of the virus. To this end, the Gabonese government should ensure the availability and accessibility of the hygiene products and the water needed to fight CODIV-19. In addition, the management of the COVID-19 crisis by the Gabonese authorities shows the limits of Gabon's economic model, which should produce a minimum of goods and services necessary for its autonomy, while facilitating the use of other means of payment by economic agents