Transferts technologiques Nord-Sud, intégration régionale et dynamique de l'hypothèse de « partenaires commerciaux naturels »

Based on static analysis, a number of studies argue that forming a regional trade agreement RTA is more likely to raise welfare if member countries are ?natural trading partners,? while other studies claim the opposite. This paper considers the argument from a dynamic viewpoint by examining the impact of trade with Japan, North America and the EU on technology diffusion and TFP in Jordan, Korea and Mexico. Using industry-level data, we show that i) technology diffusion and productivity gains tend to be regional: Jordan (Korea) (Mexico) tend to benefit mainly from trade with the EU (Japan) (North America); and ii) the dynamic version of the ?natural trading partners? hypothesis seems to hold. JEL Classification: F02, F13, F15, F43, O39