Transitioning to a Green Economy : Radical Transformation or Building Upon Existing Skills?

It is generally assumed that transitioning to a “green” economy will require industries to change the activities in which they engage. This, in turn, will induce changes in employment that some assert could eliminate entire workforce segments and require significant reskilling of others. This concern about possible labor disruption contributes to resistance against initiating transitions to green economies. Yet if many of the skills embodied in current economic activities can be reallocated to activities that facilitate a transition to a green economy, will it really be necessary to retrain many or even most workers? Here we utilize a new taxonomy of sustainable economic activities – those that can contribute to climate change mitigation or adaptation -- to estimate the number of US and German workers already employed in industries that are equipped to undertake sustainable economic activities. We find that over 47 million workers in the US, nearly 34% of its labor force, could conceivably contribute to a green economic transition by applying their existing skills to new activities within their current industry. In Germany the fraction is even higher at over 38%. Thus, it may be firms more than individual workers that must be retooled to undertake new activities and propel the transition to a green economy