Transitions from Welfare and the Employment Prospects of Low-Skill Workers

This study examines the effects that labor market conditions and welfare policy changes had on single mothers' welfare participation and economic outcomes using longitudinal, individual-level data from the 1992 and 1993 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The study uses special versions of the SIPP panels that include state and county identifiers and links the individual information to county-specific measures of low-skill employment opportunities and state measures of welfare policies. It estimates transition models of program entry and exit and regression models of economic outcomes. The study finds that employment conditions and welfare benefit levels were significant determinants of single mothers' welfare participation and economic success over the period 1992–95. However, it does not find statistically distinguishable differences in participation and economic success between states that did and did not reform their welfare programs through waivers to the federal rules.