Treaty verification with an uncertain partner

A simple model is used to analyze the performance of a system for verifying compliance with an arms control treaty. Blue and Red are partners in to a treaty. Blue prefers to comply, but is uncertain whether Red similarly prefers compliance (in the absence of threatened violation detection). Blue's uncertainty is modeled as a probability distribution over three different Red types: Violators, Compilers, and Deterrables. Criteria are derived to determine the level at which Blue should set his detection threshold, and when it is best for Blue not to verify at all. The results involve both game-theoretic and Bayes solutions. 9 refs., 14 figs.