U.S. Fertility Decline and Recuperation Following the Great Recession by County-Level Industrial Composition of the Labor Force

Amid a persistent U.S. fertility decline since the Great Recession, fertility recuperationpatterns by geographic regions were not homogeneous. This study hypothesizesthat the geographic discrepancies in fertility patterns are attributable to differentlabor force compositions by the regions. We use data from the U.S. Census Bureau’sAnnual Estimates of the Resident Population County Components of PopulationChange to estimate the discrepancy in fertility variations at the county-level. Bycomparing the slopes of births before and following the recession, we visualize thecharacteristics of fertility variations at the U.S. county-level. Also, a multiple linearregression model estimates that the counties with a greater share of labor force inwholesale trade, information & technology, finance & insurance, and professional& scientific industry show greater volatility in fertility trends throughout the GreatRecession. On the contrary, the counties with higher proportions of the labor forcein agriculture, retail trade, and education industry tend to less change over the yearsof the economic recession. However, fertility recuperation is limitedly identifiedamid the structural fertility decline after the Great Recession