U.S. Shale Oil Production and Technology Trend Estimation : Forecasting a Hubbert Curve Model Including Technology Change

Scarcity and growth analyses about energy include forecasting extraction rates of non-renewable resources while taking into account technological progression. There are two distinct technological mechanisms. Moore’s (1965) Law technological improvement is experience enhanced steady cost reductions. Synthesis technological change is unforeseen innovative breakthroughs. Both affect petroleum production trends differently. I analyze the two technological contributions as they relate to the Hubbert (1956 & 1962) Curve trend of extraction of U.S shale oil resources in the U.S. Lower 48 contiguous states. I build a dynamic framework for price effects, drilling rigs and the price-to-drilling rig relationship within a cointegrated, auto-regressive model