Ukraine : 2013 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine

KEY ISSUES Context: Weak external demand and inconsistent macroeconomic policies have contributed to a prolonged economic recession. A combination of an effectively pegged exchange rate, loose fiscal policy, and sizable quasi-fiscal losses in the energy sector has pushed the fiscal and external current account deficits to very high levels. A gradual depletion of international reserves and other buffers is making the economy particularly vulnerable to external shocks. Outlook and risks: A modest economic recovery should commence in late 2013. However, a difficult business climate and impaired external competitiveness are weighing on the medium-term outlook. The current policy mix is not sustainable as it generates large imbalances and depresses growth. The risk of a costly market-forced adjustment is high. Main policy recommendations: * Allow the exchange rate to adjust to its equilibrium level and increase its flexibility. Accelerate preparations for the introduction of inflation targeting. * Strengthen the financial system’s resilience to shocks, including by developing comprehensive contingency plans to cover potential capital and liquidity shortfalls under various scenarios. * Curtail the fiscal deficit through a reform-based current expenditure consolidation and the cancelation of unaffordable tax cuts. * Reduce the quasi-fiscal losses in the energy sector by increasing the very low household gas and heating tariffs in the context of a comprehensive energy sector reform plan, while protecting the most vulnerable households. * Launch broad structural and governance reforms to improve the business climate and boost sustainable growth