Uncertainty Deconstructed : A Guidebook for Decision Support Practitioners

Part I: Introducing the Programme and its Contents -- 1. Setting the Scene and Introduction -- Part II: Theoretical Underpinnings: Structural Components Of Uncertainty -- 2. Locating Uncertainty along the Risk Spectrum -- 3. Problem Status -- 4. Time-Based Criteria -- 5. The Evidence Base -- 6. Ways of Seeing the Future. Part III: Theoretical Underpinnings: Scenarios and their Role in Dealing With Uncertainty -- 7. Scenarios - What Are They, Why Are They Useful and How Can We Best Use Them? -- 8. Scenario Derivatives First, Second and Third Order Scenarios: Generic (Landscape) Variables -- Part IV: Theoretical Underpinnings: Behaviour – The Hidden Influencer In How We Deal With Uncertainty -- 9. Behavioural Factors: Cognitive Biases and Dissonance, Anomie, and Alienation (Or How We Humans Mess Things Up) -- 10. How to Mitigate the Impact of the Behavioural Minefield -- Part V: Theory into Practice – Reactive and Exploatory Scenarios and Case Studies -- 11. Reactive – the Covid-19 Pandemic -- 12. An Exploratory Scenario Case Study – Social Mobility and Inequality -- 13. Achieving Net Zero – The Small Island Developing States (SIDs) Initiative: An Exploratory Investment Decision Support Framework to Help Address Uncertainty -- 14. Concluding Comments.