Understanding the impact of the Taliban drug ban : situational analysis of Afghanistan to inform EU policymakers

This paper draws on a wide set of indicators and methods to document how the drugs industry has changed since the imposition of the current Taliban drug ban, focusing on the production and trade of ephedra and opium and their respective derivatives: ephedrine and methamphetamine; and morphine base, heroin base and heroin hydrochloride. It documents some of the challenges presented by existing datasets and how they have affected our understanding of the impact of the current drug ban and its implications for Europe. In doing so, it outlines the type of data and methods that can offer a better understanding of what is a complex unfolding situation that is likely to have far-reaching effects on Afghanistan, the surrounding region and drug markets in Europe. The paper is divided into three sections. The first section charts the impact of the Taliban ban on the methamphetamine industry, drawing on high-resolution satellite imagery and economic data. It shows an industry under stress, with much lower levels of methamphetamine production than in 2021, when it was at its peak (Mansfield, 2023a). The second section uses a similar approach to review the status of the opium industry up to the autumn of 2024. It details the uneven nature of the ban, with a stronger enforcement against the ephedra trade, and the impact that rising opium prices are having on inventories, trade and processing into morphine and heroin. The data presented in this section challenges many of the assumptions that have shaped the general understanding of the opium industry in Afghanistan and charts how the production of opiates and its associated markets have changed over time in response to the current drug ban. The final section provides a conclusion that points to the importance of deploying a wider set of indicators and methods to assess changes in drug production and supply in source countries such as Afghanistan, so that policymakers are better equipped to anticipate and respond to threats.