Unemployment Duration and Job-Match Quality in Urban China: The Dynamic Impact of 2008 Labor Contract Law

We assess the unemployment duration-dependent impact of the 2008 Labor Contract Law on job finding probabilities and subsequently job-match quality, including job security, wages and employer-provided social insurance. Dynamic endogeneity underlying individuals’ sequential labor market outcomes is addressed by sharp regression discontinuity and correlated individual unobservables settling into non-parametric joint distribution. The law protracts employment only in the short-term. After job match, the law stabilizes employment and increases wages and insurance coverage, all in the short-term with substantial differences between urban locals and migrant workers and heterogeneity in gender.