Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Calculate Match Importance

This article presents a new method of calculating match importance. Match importance is defined as strength of relationship between the match result and a given season outcome. Probabilities of all necessary match result-season outcome combinations are estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. Using actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League and betting odds, it is shown that both match result and season outcome predictions are realistic. The method provides results that are close to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.