Using population projections to identify aspects of future tourism demand

Identifying future tourism demand is a critical aspect for tourism decision-makers to ensure the long-term success of products, services and destinations. This paper discusses how population change, an important driver of tourism demand, may impact future demand patterns. It discusses potential impacts of projected demographic change, especially those resulting from the related aspects of population ageing and changing family structures. A case study amongst Baby Boomers and Generation Y on the Gold Coast, Australia, illustrates how demand patterns may develop over the next 15 years. The study incorporates different population scenarios as projected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and shows a great diversity of demand amongst both generations. It is suggested that scenarios be used to analyse potential impacts of other determinants to obtain a better understanding of future tourism demand, thus expanding the scope of traditional forecasting methods.