USING THE ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO IMPROVE THE ACCURACY OF GDP DEFLATOR FORECASTS

In this article, the GDP deflator is predicted starting from econometric models of historical errors of forecasts based on Dobrescu macromodel. In Romania, a significant relationship between GDP deflator and GDP index predictions was not confirmed. However, there is an important dependence between the forecasts errors of the two variables. Econometric models were built for real errors, absolute ones and squared errors of Dobrescu predictions of 1997-2008. The forecasts errors of GDP deflator for 2009, 2010 and 2011 are lower in all cases than those based on Dobrescu macroeconometric model, the accuracy indicators being a proof of this. But, only the forecasts based on absolute errors are superior to naïve forecasts. This econometric approach for historical forecasts errors are a very good strategy of improving the experts predictions.