Valuing leasing risks in commercial property with a discrete‐time binomialtree option model

This paper models the lessee's default options and estimates the economic value of the options for a lessee using a discrete time binomial American option pricing model. Results show a positive relationship of the option premium with the original rent and a negative relationship with the relocation costs. Finds that the default probability is higher for lessees who are more sensitive to rental changes and place less emphasis on the fitting‐out quality. Suggests that rental volatility and rental growth rate are two significant factors that have positive relationships with the default option values. The risk‐free rate, on the other hand, has an inverse relationship with the default option values because a higher risk‐free interest rate reduces the present value of rental savings. Lease term length to expiration has a positive effect on the default option value, implying that the default option premium will decay as the term to expiry is shortened.