Variability and strictness in COVID-19 government response : a macro-regional assessment

We examine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical government interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19. In particular, we focus on the impact of strictness and variability in government interventions on the reproduction rate (Rt) and the number of new deaths (per million of inhabitants) in five different world regions (G7, G20, EU28, Central America and Asia). In line with existing evidence, we observe that more stringent and frequent NPIs contributed to slow down contagion. Unfortunately, no benefits in terms of mortality are found. In fact, with few exceptions, both strictness and variability in NPIs are associated with a rise in the number of new deaths. This evidence is observed to be stronger among advanced economies and over the second pandemic wave. Take together, our research findings advocate early and decisive implementation of NPIs, but gradual and staggered relaxation of NPIs when the pandemic appears to recede.