Views on the international market for energy biomass in 2020: results from a scenario study

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020 and identify underlying steps needed toward a vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Design/methodology/approach – Two scenario processes were conducted for the study. A heuristic, semi‐structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. Findings – The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, the potential of technological development in solving the global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for the global issues, and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. Research limitations/implications – Further research is needed involving analysis of the probabilities of the technological and commercial elements in each scenario. It is also important to conceptualise the scale and directions of biomass trade streams and determine the influences of the scenarios from the viewpoints of different actors. Practical implications – The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial aspects of the scenarios and foreseeing the scales and directions of biomass streams. Originality/value – In this study, scenario processes supplemented by a GSS are applied for investigating the future development of the biomass market.