Vremenske Serije U Stalnim Cenama I Problem Prelaska Na Neoriginalnu Baznu Godinu (Временные Ряды в Неизменных Ценах и Гроблема Перехода На Неоригинальный Базисный Год) [Time Series in Constant Prices and the Problem of Transition to Nonoriginal Base Year}

English Abstract: The paper discusses adequacy of use of time series in constant prices (for any chosen, “basic”, year), as being “real” expression of corresponding (economic) aggregates. Theoretical analysis has resulted in a conclusion, that the series are influenced by the realized price structure for the year chosen, thus relativizing “real” data. In addition to this, the conclusion calls for applving a different approach in expressing prices, i.e. for “non-original" base year. Since official statistical data do not make it possible, it is necessary to recalculate them to non-original basis. Further, a particular procedure of recalculating the data is considered, which is based on transformation of implicit GDP deflators of corresponding time series to value equalling one in new base year. It has also been shown that the results of this recalculation are influenced by the realized price structure too.In the second part of the paper, theoretical discussion is illustrated by an example of recalculating a number of time series for GDPs of Yugoslav republics (for the period 1961-73, on the basis of avaiiable official statistical data, in 1966, and 1972, prices), thus making it possible to undertake an empirical test of (un)adequacy of the approach chosen. The example has produced results (a number of recalculateđ series), vvhich considerably deviate from original series, thus proving that it is necessarv to relativize to a considerable degree the use of “real” series in constant prices. Additionaly, it has also been proved that neither the alternative way of recalculating the data to some “non-original” base year can produce satisfactory results.Consequently, another important conclusion has been drawn, i.e. that official statistical aggregate data should be simultaneously published for a longer period; additionaly, when switching to a new base year, the 1972 base year — now being “real” year for measuring aggregate — should be kept for some time