Vulnerability and Poverty Dynamics in Uganda, 1992-1999

This paper uses a panel data set of 1309 households in Uganda to measure vulnerability to poverty between 1992/93 and 1999/2000 and to estimate the impact of household characteristics on vulnerability. The likelihood of future poverty is estimated based on the expected mean and variance of household consumption. Education, spatial characteristics, and access to community infrastructure are found to have important impacts on vulnerability. Specifically, the reduction in vulnerability to poverty increases with higher education attainment of the household head. Also households resident in northern Uganda are about 60 percent more vulnerable compared to their counterparts in central Uganda. The study also finds that causes of vulnerability in Uganda are similar to causes of poverty and therefore policies to raise the earning capacity of poor households would help both vulnerability and poverty.