Wage Growth and Job Mobility in the Early Career: Testing a Statistical Discrimination Model of the Gender Wage Gap

This paper investigates the links between statistical discrimination, mobility, tenure, and wage profiles in the early career of workers. The model assumes that female workers’ productivity is noisier and that the noise/signal ratio tapers off more rapidly for male workers. These two assumptions yield numerous theoretical predictions pertaining to gender wage gaps. These predictions are tested using data from the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. As predicted, we find that men and women have the same wage at the start of their career, but that female wages grow at a slower rate thus generating a gender wage gap.