Wages and the Great War : evidence from the largest draft lottery in history

Bruno Caprettini and Hans-Joachim Voth

Do veterans earn less? During WW I, the US organized "the greatest human lottery in history": a random draft of 24 million men. Ultimately, 2.8 million Americans were selected to join the armed forces. We sample 10% of registrants of the 1917 lottery and match these men with the 1930 and 1940 US Federal Censuses. Low lottery numbers significantly increased the likelihood of serving in World War I. Importantly, military service also had a positive causal effect on earnings and occupational outcomes. Veterans joined professions with higher cognitive skill requirements, including higher intelligence, language, reasoning, and math requirements. Randomly-assigned military service had fundamentally different effects during World War I than in Vietnam. We rationalize this finding by analyzing complier characteristics.

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Year of publication:	November 2023
Authors:	Caprettini, Bruno ; Voth, Hans-Joachim
Publisher:	Zurich : University of Zurich, Department of Economics
Subject:	Veterans' income \| lottery \| IV \| effect of war participation \| Glücksspiel \| Gambling \| Soldaten \| Soldiers \| Lohn \| Wages \| Krieg \| War \| Einkommen \| Income \| Wehrdienst \| Military service \| Geschichte \| History

Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten) Illustrationen
Series:	Working paper series / University of Zurich, Department of Economics. - Zurich : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], ISSN 1664-705X, ZDB-ID 2625625-3. - Vol. no. 441
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature ; Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.5167/uzh-239553 [DOI] hdl:10419/280777 [Handle]
Classification:	N42 - U.S.; Canada: 1913- ; J45 - Public Sector Labor Markets ; I23 - Higher Education Research Institutions ; J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity ; N32 - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014438842