What determines inflation?

This paper focuses on the determinants of inflation for new European Union members during the period from 1996 to 2011. We utilise a structural vector error correction model to estimate mark-up or long-run output gap relationships and the analyse dynamic properties of the models. We find that Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria can be characterised by cost-push inflation from a long-run perspective whereas demand-side factors are more characteristic for Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania. Inflation dynamics in short-run inflation were influenced by inertia, labour costs, foreign market competitiveness, production as well as some exogenous shocks. We also investigate the direct relationship between inflation and government deficit; however, there seems to be no interdependency between these variables in the long run.