What determines the duration of stay of immigrants in Germany?: Evidence from a longitudinal duration analysis

Purpose – Because of the increasing importance of immigration for Germany due to the ageing population and the lack of highly skilled in some industries, the purpose of this paper is to analyse the return-migration of German immigrants. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses the German Socio-economic Panel to conduct an event-history analysis of return-migration. Findings – The analysis reveals that return migration is heavily influenced by country of origin. Individuals from countries with free labour movement agreements with Germany show a considerably higher likelihood of leaving Germany relative to the other countries. The main finding is, with respect to the self-selection process, that highly skilled are more likely to remigrate than those who are less skilled. In addition, the results give substantial information considering the design of German immigration policy. Originality/value – This paper conducts the first remigration analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model with years of residence as waiting time. Using the latest data, with respect to qualification, a positive self-selection of remigrants was found.