'What Do the Numbers Actually Say?' : American Per Capita Manufacturing Output 1947-2018, the Consumer Price Index, and the Question of Deindustrialization

By way of manufacturing output, inflation and population growth data this paper considers per capita U.S. output across the range of officially tracked manufacturing categories over the 1947-2018 period. After arguing for the validity of its method (in particular, the use of CPI-adjusted figures as the basis for measuring change in this area over time) it shows that U.S. output has consistently fallen since the 1970s as a whole, and in the vast majority of manufacturing categories, with this trend only partially offset by successes in the strongly defense-connected computer and 'other transportation equipment' sectors, and the fossil fuel-associated petroleum/coal product and chemical product sectors (in recent years, deriving a considerable boost from the shale boom). It also argues that an examination of the data on production in lines like steel and automobiles, the balance of trade, and overall American 'apparent consumption' of manufactured goods (which has shifted little in per capita terms since the 1970s), tends to support the implications of the aforementioned numbers (with an appendix also considering the changing share of manufacturing in U.S. GDP and employment in this light)