What We Cannot Learn from the Irish Experience: A Fundamental Asymmetry of Asymmetric Shocks

A simple N-country specific-factor type model with imperfectly mobile labour is developed. It is shown that the effects of country-specific productivity shocks hitting a small country are fundamentally asymmetric. A positive shock will be accommodated by a moderate wage increase and sizeable in-migration, whereas a negative shock will be accommodated by a significant decrease in wages and moderate out-migration. The effects of shocks in a monetary union are discussed, and it is argued that the results are consistent with the recent Irish experience. The welfare effects of small economic fluctuations are also discussed.