What You Export Matters

When local cost discovery generates knowledge spillovers, specialization patterns become partly indeterminate and the mix of goods that a country produces may have important implications for economic growth. We demonstrate this proposition formally and adduce some empirical support for it. We construct an index of the "income level of a country's exports," document its properties, and show that it predicts subsequent economic growth. [Jointly published as Center for International Development Working Paper No. 123 and KSG Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP05-063.]