When Might the Federal Funds Rate Lift Off? Computing the Probabilities of Crossing Unemployment and Inflation Thresholds

The Federal Open Market Committee has been providing guidance to help markets anticipate when it will begin raising the federal funds rate target. The most recent guidance suggests that the target will not change at least until after an unemployment or infl ation threshold is breached. We use a forecasting model to estimate when these thresholds are likely to be breached. We also consider how an infl ation fl oor would affect the timing of liftoff.

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Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Knotek, Edward S. Knotek, II ; Zaman, Saeed
Published in:	Economic Commentary. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. - 2013, Dec, 19
Publisher:	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010823070