Who Is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism?: Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition

This paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a cross-sectional model stressing two major factors: conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of transition to the subsequent path for the development of market-related institutions. Institutional development, as proxied by measures of corruption, is used as an intermediate variable. An instrumental variable approach is followed to derive estimates that are not biased by the possible endogeneity of corruption with respect to output developments. Assuming that the extent of Soviet legacies was positively correlated with the length of communist rule allows us to use years under the Soviet regime as an instrument.