Why Are Population Flows So Persistent?

A neoclassical model of local growth is developed by integrating the static equilibrium underlying compensating differential theory as the steady state of a neoclassical growth model. Numerical results show that even very small frictions to labor and capital mobility along with small changes in local productivity or local quality of life suffice to cause highly persistent population flows. Wages and house prices, in contrast, jump most of the way to their new steady state. The model suggests that cross-sectional regressions of local population growth can identify past and present changes in the determinants of representative-agent welfare. More generally, it provides a framework for interpreting observed local growth rates