Why rising tides dont lift all boats? An explanation of the relationship between poverty and unemployment in Britain

Abstract: This paper is motivated by the lack of any obvious relationship between aggregate poverty and unemployment in Great Britain. We derive a framework based on individuals' risks of unemployment and poverty, and how these vary over the economic cycle. Analysing the British Household Panel Survey for 1991-96, we are able to square the micro evidence - that unemployment matters for poverty - with the macro picture - that there's no strong link. We then go on to identify which household and individual characteristics are associated with whether an individual's poverty risk is vulnerable to the economic cycle.