Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)?

The aim of this article is to investigate whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions, through jet fuel demand forecasts, using specific hypothesis and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. (a.k.a. “scenario of type I”) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2◦C. Thus, aviation CO2 emissions are unlikely to diminish over the next decade unless there is a radical shift in technology and/or travel demand is restricted.