With Maths, There’s a Right or a Wrong Answer : Does Numeracy Skill Predict Consistency in Kidney Transplantation Choices?

This paper investigates whether there is a link between numeracy skill and choice consistency using a population of roughly 250 patients enrolled on the waiting list for kidney transplantation in Italy. Patients participate in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) measuring time and risk preferences in kidney transplantation and answer a three-item numeracy questions. Mixed logit (MXL) model in willingness to wait (WTW) space was employed to investigate the effect of numeracy skill on choice consistency. Patients with a higher numeracy skill can state decisions that are based more firmly on the content of choice tasks, namely the attributes and their respective levels. Besides, consistency resulted in a lower WTW estimates for a kidney transplant with better-expected outcomes. These relationships are significant, and even when one takes account of other differences between these patients in terms of their gender and duration of dialysis. The study highlighted the importance of incorporating short numeracy questions in DCEs to determine choice consistency