Work Histories and Pension Entitlements in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay

We propose alternative methods to project pension rights and implement them in Chile and Uruguay and partially in Argentina. We use incomplete work histories databases from the social security administrations to project entire lifetime work histories. We first fit linear probability and duration models of the contribution status and dynamic linear models of the income level. We then run Monte Carlo simulations to project work histories and compute pension rights. According to our results, significant swathes of the population would not access to fundamental pension benefits at age 65, if the current eligibility rules were strictly enforced. .