Working Paper 02-06 - An Evaluation of the Risks Surrounding the 2006-2012 NIME Economic Outlook : Illustrative Stochastic Simulations

In this Working Paper, we describe how we used stochastic simulation to evaluate the risks surrounding the January 2006 nime Economic Outlook (neo) for the world economy. We summarise the main results by showing confidence intervals around the baseline projection as well as probabilities that certain events will occur. The results presented in this Working Paper are of an illustrative nature and do not constitute an update of the January 2006 nime Economic Outlook.