Paya, Ivan; Peel, David A.; Venetis, Ioannis A. - Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas (IVIE) - 2004
We analyze the nonlinear behavior of the information content in the spread for future real economic activity. The spread linearly predicts one year ahead real growth in nine industrial production sectors of the US and four of the UK over the last forty years. However, recent investigations on...