Pooter, M.D. de; Ravazzolo, F.; Segers, R.; Dijk, H.K. van - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2008
Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the … situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This … feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models, to forecasting with near-random walk models and to clustering of …