Owyang, Michael T.; Piger, Jeremy M.; Wall, Howard J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2004
The U.S. aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases. We … apply a regime-switching model to state-level coincident indexes to characterize state business cycles in this way. We find … significantly in the timing of switches between regimes, indicating large differences in the extent to which state business cycle …