Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta - 2021
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are … unbiased and efficient on average, however there is evidence of state dependence. In particular, the ECB tends to overpredict …