Ciccarelli, Matteo; Garcia, Juan Angel - 2009
confidence and cyclical indicators remain important. -- Break-even inflation rates ; inflation risk premia ; business cycle ….
Keywords: break-even in�ation rates, in�ation risk premia, business cycle indicators,
Bayesian model selection
JEL Classi … 2009
the US business cycle conditions) also play a role. In contrast, financial variables (i.e.
the yield curve spread …