Jansen, David-Jan; Haan, Jakob de - CESifo - 2006
use ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule which we estimate using statements by ECB officials as well as … macroeconomic variables. Statements by ECB officials on the main refinancing rate and future inflation are significantly related to … ECB decisions. However, an out-of-sample evaluation shows that communication-based models do not outperform models based …