paper builds on the two‐factor model developed by Cairns et al (2006) for projecting
future mortality. It is shown that these two factors do not follow a random walk, as
proposed … by Cairns et al, but should instead be modeled as a random fluctuation around a
trend, the trend changing periodically. Projecting mortality rates in this way suggests much
greater uncertainty over future mortality … improvements.
Keywords
stochastic mortality; mortality projections; mortality trends; Lee‐Carter;
3
1. Introduction
In …