observed in the past, the model gives a poor fit to
historical data.
3
- The uncertainty in future death rates is …,20%
0,25%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
year
centr
al death r
a
te
Best estimate
5% / 95% percentile
U ….S Male - age 45
0,0%
0,1%
0,2%
0,3%
0,4%
0,5%
0,6%
0,7%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
year
centr
al death …