Paap, Richard (contributor); Segers, Rene (contributor); … - 2007
business cycle peaks
and troughs. For this purpose, we propose a novel Markov switching vector
autoregressive model, where … asymmetric lead times leads
to improved real-time dating of business cycle peaks and troughs and more
accurate forecasts of … turning points and IP growth.
Keywords: Business Cycles, Leading Indicators, Markov Switching, Bayesian
Inference, Real …