Owyang, Michael T.; Piger, Jeremy M.; Wall, Howard J. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2012
aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we … investigate whether there is additional information regarding business cycle phases contained in subnational measures of economic …-horizon forecasts of the business cycle phase. The gains in forecast accuracy are concentrated during months of national recession …