Rumler, Fabio; Valderrama, Maria Teresa - Oesterreichische Nationalbank - 2008
The New Keynesian Phillips Curve, as a structural model of inflation dynamics, has mostly been used to explain past … inflation developments, but has hardly been used for forecasting purposes. We propose a method of forecasting inflation based on …-of-the-art time series models used in inflation forecasting we employ a Bayesian VAR, a traditional VAR and a simple autoregressive …