Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Paesani, Paolo; Onorante, Luca - European Central Bank - 2010
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … euro area, and investigates their linkages in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation …