Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006
sometimes biased)
estimates of average beliefs about the probability an event occurs.
First draft: November 7, 2004 … the event will occur?” Moreover, he notes that “recent papers on
prediction markets provide no formal analysis showing … (a binary option) paying $1 if a specific event occurs, and nothing
otherwise. There is heterogeneity in beliefs among …