Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - Department of Economics, European University Institute - 2010
This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates, including those provided … several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the … output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation …