Elinder, Mikael; Jordahl, Henrik; Poutvaara, Panu - 2008
We present and test a theory of prospective and retrospective pocketbook voting. Focusing on two large reforms in … Sweden, we establish a causal chain from policies to sizeable individual gains and losses and then to voting. The Social …-in-differences strategy for identification. We find clear evidence of prospective pocketbook voting. Voters respond to campaign promises but …